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Value
Last night’s Senate runoff in Georgia looks like it will be a clean sweep for the Democrats giving them control of the Presidency, House and Senate (with the VP holding the tie breaking vote). The margins in the House and the Senate are very small, so it won’t be easy to pass a major tax...
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The last decade has been a strong one for U.S. equities and bonds.  One primary driver of that performance were low starting valuations, stemming from the Great Recession, which had just ended in 2009.  This was the opposite of the scenario that led to the lost decade preceding it.  I believe many market participants are...
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On Monday, we saw additional positive news on the Covid-19 vaccine front, with Moderna’s initial data looking very promising.  This is another revolutionary MRNA vaccine, similar to Pfizer’s, which released impressive data last week. More traditionally developed vaccines are coming down the pipeline as well, and treatments such as the Eli Lilly and Regeneron antibody...
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This year has been wild in many terrible ways.  One extremely painful phenomenon (for a value investor) has been the massive growth outperformance relative to value.  Coming into the year, we were at the widest relative spread between growth and value since 2000.  After the pandemic tanked stocks more closely related to the economy, the...
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2020 has seen a major disconnect between growth and value.  In the first quarter, the Russell 1000 Pure Growth Total Return index returned -13.6%, while the Russell 1000 Pure Value Total Return index returned -35%.  If you think about the companies that are most negatively impacted by the bizarre nature of this crisis where economies...
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It has been an interesting week with a great start and a terrible finish for the markets.  We know there is going to be volatility so I wouldn’t see it as much of a surprise.  I’ve written a lot lately, so I’ll just pass on this great video of Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates, one...
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Well that was one heck of a week.  While I certainly was not smart enough to predict the results of the election, it has had a profound impact on my expectations for us as investors.  For the last 7 years, I’ve been one of the most vocal advocates of financial stocks that I am aware...
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I’ve been warning all year about a clear and obvious bubble in consumer staples stocks.  The same can be said for utilities and many areas on the fixed income market.  This bubble has been built on the pervasive market sentiment that as long as the dividend yield is reasonably greater than what can be obtained...
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Over the last month, we have begun to see financial stocks outperform the overall market.  If one was to ask why, most market participants would say that the perception that interest rate hikes are more likely to be forthcoming in 2016 is driving the stocks.  In a market where short-termism is the status quo, these...
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Today it was announced that TIAA was buying Everbank (EVER) for $19.50 per share.  Everbank is a very average bank with lower returns on equity than the big banks.  As of the 2nd quarter 2016, Everbank’s tangible book value per share was $13.24 meaning that TIAA is paying right around 1.5 times tangible book.  Because...
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