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Perspectives
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for more than 1/3rd of the value of the S&P 500.  Valuations in this group are vastly elevated compared to their historical levels, highlighted by Nvidia trading at a staggering 41 times sales.  It’s hard not to compare today’s environment in the large cap Technology...
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You likely are sensing a bit of a theme with recent articles discussing what I believe to be a pretty substantial equity bubble, centered on the Megacap stocks dominating the market.  To be clear, I think there is still value in some of them, and we actually own some of them, although our exposures are...
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Today I was reading an interesting article in the WSJ describing the increased risk-taking that many retirees and near-retirees are taking with their investment portfolios.     For instance, “nearly half of Vanguard 401(k) investors actively managing their money and over age 55 held more than 70% of their portfolios in stocks.  In 2011, 38% did so.  At...
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The YTD rally in the S&P 500 has been dominantly comprised from the performance on the top 8 stocks, all of which performed poorly last year.  This is by far the narrowest rally since the Tech Bubble, which ultimately culminated in an 80% drop in the Nasdaq.  These stocks are so big and comprise such...
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Understanding investor psychology is one of the most crucial elements to investing successfully.  The ebbs and flows between exuberance and pessimism creates both opportunities and risks.  The current equities market is being driven by euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence technology.  The 7 or 8 companies that are perceived to the primary beneficiaries at this early stage...
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In our last newsletter we talked about the very exciting and attractive opportunities to invest in quality bonds yielding between 7-11% per annum on a yield-to-maturity basis.  In today’s newsletter, I’d like to discuss some of the high dividend yields that are available currently, which provide both a solid income and appreciation potential.  The stock...
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Hope you all had an enjoyable and safe Memorial Day weekend celebrating those that paid the ultimate sacrifice for our country!  I’m glad to see a debt ceiling deal seems to have been agreed upon in principle over the weekend, which hopefully will remove a major headline risk.  It certainly doesn’t resolve any of the...
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One of the hardest aspects of investing is dealing with the psychological challenges financial markets present.  Mr. Market’s extreme pessimism or optimism can be contagious at exactly the wrong time, leading to big losses and permanent losses of capital, which are precisely what we are most focused on avoiding.  The current market is being dominated...
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In our last article we covered the Bubble in “Safe” Stocks, where investors are paying outrageously high multiples for companies that are believed to be more recession resistant such as consumer staples.  In this article I figured I’d cover a stock Mr. Market and the doom and gloom propagandists view to be “risky” based on...
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Since early March, the stock market has been far more driven by fear than fundamentals, which has led to what I believe to be a bubble in stocks perceived as being “safe.”  When you pay 50% too much for a stock, a simple reversion to the mean can cause disastrous permanent losses of capital.  Conversely,...
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