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Perspectives
Global markets have sold off pretty hard to start the week.  Most of the narrative surrounds the Chinese property market and one of their largest developers, Evergrande.  China’s government is clamping down on leverage and demanding many industries to buy in, literally, to their social objectives via cash “donations”, cheaper housing, etc.  Both the Shanghai...
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Today the August jobs report came out and was quite disappointing.  The U.S. only added 235,000 jobs, which was well short of expectations that were for over 700,000 new jobs.  Fears regarding the Delta variant likely had a role in this big miss.  Many businesses I’ve talked to have expressed immense frustration about a lack...
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We are beginning to see a bit of increasing volatility in equity markets arise, as concerns around Covid-19 and the Delta variant have caused increases in positive test results and restrictions, albeit on a far smaller basis than what occurred last year.  We’ve been writing about the market getting a bit ahead of itself for...
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Wall Street, like many other industries, is designed to sell you what you think you want. It is like a candy store offering you a wide variety of delectable offerings, that while tasty, might not be best for your health.  Good investments don’t need massive promotional campaigns to sell prudent investors.  Usually a paragraph or...
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2020 was a truly unique year from a stock market perspective in that the most expensive stocks got more expensive, while the cheapest stocks got cheaper.  All of this was in spite of the year starting with the spread between value and growth already at near-record levels, with many astute investors betting on mean reversion. ...
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Today the U.S. consumer prices numbers were released.  The numbers topped forecasts significantly, increasing by 0.8% from the prior month, reflecting gains in nearly every major category.  To put it into context, the gain in the overall CPI was twice as much as the highest projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.  It is clear...
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We saw a little bit of volatility the last few days, as an overleveraged hedge fund blew up spectacularly.  It was one of the largest blowups in history (over $50 billion) and despite owning some pretty good positions, being leveraged 5-1 almost always assures disaster at some point, unless you are exceptionally lucky, and this...
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Volatility has come back into the equity markets, driven by rapidly increasing Treasury yields.  In fact, since the vaccine data came out towards the end of last year, Treasury Bonds are down 27.7%, meaning yields are up.  This has coincided with value stocks and financials going on a massive rally and outperforming peers, after a...
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There have been a few interesting market developments the last few days.  10-year Treasury yields have increased to levels around where they were last year at this time, before the pandemic and lockdowns had really been felt.  The $1.9 Trillion stimulus package seems to be getting closer to getting done.  Inflation expectations are ticking up...
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The speculative fever seems to be at full blast as we’ve seen with the wild price moves in stocks such as Tesla, or alternatives such as Bitcoin.  Many people are applying pandemic-inflated growth levels into perpetuity.  One example, I find interesting is Zoom Video Communications (ZM).  The stock rose 400% last year, as the technology...
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