Category

Inflation
You likely are sensing a bit of a theme with recent articles discussing what I believe to be a pretty substantial equity bubble, centered on the Megacap stocks dominating the market.  To be clear, I think there is still value in some of them, and we actually own some of them, although our exposures are...
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A decade-long policy of virtually zero interest rates impacted assets globally and built the everything bubble.  It would be naive of us to think that the unraveling of this would not cause things to break.  Last week, we saw it occur with the implosion of two large crypto and venture capital-focused banks.  These institutions (Silvergate...
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Markets continue to exhibit higher volatility due to economic data that indicates that higher for longer Federal Reserve interest rate policies are more likely.  At TTCM, we view predicting macroeconomic data as being a rather pyrrhic enterprise, as success rates for even supposed experts, are far less than 50%.  By focusing on individual securities and...
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Volatility has begun to pick up in equity markets as bond yields have continued to creep higher, based on fears of higher for longer inflationary pressures.  I’ve warned before about being too aggressive in this environment.  Too many people expect equity markets to perform like they did in exceptionally low interest rate periods and that...
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In early 2023, we have seen a bit of a return of the speculative euphoria that was so pervasive in 2020 and 2021, which has driven up asset prices once again.  Market participants are more optimistic about things based on the belief that inflationary pressures are headed far lower, which should result in the end...
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  “You don’t find out who is swimming naked until the tide comes out.” Warren Buffett   Financial markets over the short-term are akin to middle school popularity contests.  The euphoria or pessimism of the day generally reflects recent price performance.  Because there is 24/7 coverage, media pundits feel like they have to give reasons...
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We are in the early weeks of earnings season, and overall, the results have been quite impressive.  The banking sector saw continued improvement in net interest margins, with credit normalizing a bit.  One must remember that we are coming off the most enormous stimulus package in history in 2020, which created the best credit environment...
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Markets have been off to a nice start to begin 2023.  Today’s CPI was quite positive, increasing by 6.5% from a year earlier, marking the sixth straight monthly deceleration since peaking in the middle of last year.  While 6.5% is still an ugly number, which I know we all feel when we go out to...
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Inflation and its impact on interest rates continues to be the driving factor in financial markets and the overall economy.  There are certainly signs of inflation slowing down in a practical sense, with what we are seeing in housing, as prices decline in many of the formerly hottest markets.  That will take time to show...
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The Huge Cost of Trying to Time the Market and Favorable Election-Year DynamicsToday I saw an interesting statistic that I wanted to share with you.  If you sold stocks at the bottom of each 10% selloff, and then bought back 10 days later, you’d miss out on over 2/3rds of the gains since 2002.  This...
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