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TTCM Newsletter

Our newsletter explores emerging trends and important news.  Stay current on the subjects that affect your money and investments.  Explore the wide range of topics in our newsletter by clicking any of the links below.

Nasdaq Down 5.16% on Higher Inflation- Worst Day Since June 2020

Today’s higher than expected August CPI report, rattled the market dramatically, causing the Nasdaq to drop by 5.2%, the S&P 500 by 4.3%, and the Dow to drop by 4%.  This was the biggest down day since June of 2020 and the 8th daily decline of greater than 3% on the year.  The recent decline...
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Higher Rates for Longer Creating Opportunities and Risks-3 Trade Examples

For those of you that have been reading this newsletter, you’ll know that we have been writing about why most bonds have made so little sense to invest in over the last few years, given the historically low yields and risks from higher rates and inflation, which has now come to fruition.  The average bond...
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Encouraging CPI and Jobs Report/ Research Reports

Today’s CPI report was very positive, coming in lower than expected.  This is very good news, if this trend continues the Federal Reserve might slow down on its rate hikes.  In addition, Friday’s July employment numbers were better than expected, although new unemployment claims are starting to rise, as companies are ramping up layoffs in...
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Value After Hours- Tim Travis joins Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast

Value After Hours S04 E27: Small Value is Quality, Energy in Food, Financials and the Consumer  
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Update on Bank Earnings

Last week we wrote to you about when to expect bear markets to end and we touched on the first day of big bank earnings.  Well, since then we’ve gotten earnings reports from Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Ally Financial.  These companies have access to an enormous amount of...
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When to Expect Recovery in a Bear Market

When you are in the midst of a bear market, all the news is bad.  You are usually either in or about to be in a recession. Analysts that kept telling you to buy stocks at 50% higher prices, now tell you to sell the same stocks despite them being dramatically cheaper.  Economic data gets...
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Tiger Global and Value Investing

Today there were headlines that one of the premier growth funds, Tiger Global Management is down 52% this year.  This has been one of the hottest funds of the last decade, buying the flashiest growth stocks with little regard to valuations.  Tiger’s aggressive strategy was richly rewarded over the last few years while value struggled...
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Warren Buffett Aggressively Buying into the Selloff

This morning, the WSJ reported that Warren Buffett has been on an aggressive buying spree during this bear market.  There is a link to the market below.  Buffett has been buying value stocks such as Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Hewlett-Packard to name a few.  When he is buying on the stocks, he isn’t predicting that...
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Inflation at 8.3% Continues to Rattle Markets

  Today’s CPI inflation data came in hot at 8.3%, down slightly from the previous report, but higher than expectations. Inflation is rampant in all the key areas that impact our daily lives such as food, energy, shelter and transportation.  The sting of higher prices and the disruption emerging from the Chinese lockdowns has the...
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S&P Down 3.56% and Nasdaq Down 4.99% on the Day

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 bps, or 1/2%.  Initially the market reacted favorably to this with a strong rally on Wednesday, only to be reversed with the biggest down day since 2020 on Thursday.  Tech/glamour stocks have simply been getting obliterated.  Tesla dropped 8.3% on the day, while Amazon dropped...
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Nasdaq Down 12% for April

What a terrible month for the equity markets.  As I write this, the Nasdaq looks set to close down 12.% for April, which is its worst monthly performance since October of 2008, which was when we were seeing some of the worst developments of the Financial Crisis.  The index is now down more than 23%...
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Inflation and War Concerns Dominate Short-Term Outlook

Yesterday’s CPI report showed prices up 7.9% YoY, which was the highest reading since 1982.  Even more concerning, this was before the impacts of the Russian/Ukraine war is reflected in the data.  Market volatility is exceptionally high and pessimism is quite pervasive.  There are legitimate fears that inflation in excess of wage growth could cause...
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Nasdaq Bear Market, Commodities Through the Roof

The Nasdaq is now officially in a bear market as defined by a 20% decline from the highs, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices are in corrections, with losses greater than 10%.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the economic sanctions brought against Russia in response are a major deal for the global...
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Inflation at 7.5% Year over Year

Today we got the latest update on the Consumer Pricing Index (CPI) and it was a doozy, showing annual inflation of 7.5%.  As you can see on the image above, the Real Fed Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate Minus CPI) is now a negative 7.4%, which is the lowest since 1974.  This means that money...
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Using Cash-Secured Put Options to Manufacture a 7.5% per annum Return

In our last newsletter written on Friday, we wrote about just how much risk market participants are having to take to target a 7.5% return, mostly due to how low yields are on bonds.  The bailout has been that equity markets have performed exceptionally well, but of course now we are starting at valuations that...
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