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TTCM Newsletter

Our newsletter explores emerging trends and important news.  Stay current on the subjects that affect your money and investments.  Explore the wide range of topics in our newsletter by clicking any of the links below.

High Income Opportunities in a Pricey Market

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for more than 1/3rd of the value of the S&P 500.  Valuations in this group are vastly elevated compared to their historical levels, highlighted by Nvidia trading at a staggering 41 times sales.  It’s hard not to compare today’s environment in the large cap Technology...
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July 25th Value After Hours Podcast

Today I had the opportunity to do the podcast Value After Hours with Tobias Carlisle and Jake Taylor.  We discussed current market valuations, the banking “crisis”, the opportunities we are finding in high-yield bonds, ALLY Financial, etc.  I hope that you enjoy!   Podcast Video
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How to Attain a Lost Decade of Performance by Chasing a Bubble?

You likely are sensing a bit of a theme with recent articles discussing what I believe to be a pretty substantial equity bubble, centered on the Megacap stocks dominating the market.  To be clear, I think there is still value in some of them, and we actually own some of them, although our exposures are...
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Retirees Allocating More and More to Equities Despite Elevated Valuations

Today I was reading an interesting article in the WSJ describing the increased risk-taking that many retirees and near-retirees are taking with their investment portfolios.     For instance, “nearly half of Vanguard 401(k) investors actively managing their money and over age 55 held more than 70% of their portfolios in stocks.  In 2011, 38% did so.  At...
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Momentum Bubble Looking Like 2000 and 2020 Again

The YTD rally in the S&P 500 has been dominantly comprised from the performance on the top 8 stocks, all of which performed poorly last year.  This is by far the narrowest rally since the Tech Bubble, which ultimately culminated in an 80% drop in the Nasdaq.  These stocks are so big and comprise such...
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Momentum Bubble Looking Like 2000 and 2020 Again

Understanding investor psychology is one of the most crucial elements to investing successfully.  The ebbs and flows between exuberance and pessimism creates both opportunities and risks.  The current equities market is being driven by euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence technology.  The 7 or 8 companies that are perceived to the primary beneficiaries at this early stage...
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High-Yield and Attractively Valued Dividend Stocks

In our last newsletter we talked about the very exciting and attractive opportunities to invest in quality bonds yielding between 7-11% per annum on a yield-to-maturity basis.  In today’s newsletter, I’d like to discuss some of the high dividend yields that are available currently, which provide both a solid income and appreciation potential.  The stock...
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7-11% Yields on Quality Bonds Offers Big Opportunity

For over a decade, bonds offered a terrible value proposition as the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy compressed yields, creating a major mismatch between opportunity and risk.  Investors weren’t being compensated for the substantial interest rate risks that they were incurring.  Remember, just two years ago, there were roughly $18 trillion in bonds that...
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Debt Ceiling Resolution and New YouTube Content

Hope you all had an enjoyable and safe Memorial Day weekend celebrating those that paid the ultimate sacrifice for our country!  I’m glad to see a debt ceiling deal seems to have been agreed upon in principle over the weekend, which hopefully will remove a major headline risk.  It certainly doesn’t resolve any of the...
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Signs of a Bubble Emerging in Pockets of Market

One of the hardest aspects of investing is dealing with the psychological challenges financial markets present.  Mr. Market’s extreme pessimism or optimism can be contagious at exactly the wrong time, leading to big losses and permanent losses of capital, which are precisely what we are most focused on avoiding.  The current market is being dominated...
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Why a Perceived “Risky” Stock is Far from Actually Being Risky

In our last article we covered the Bubble in “Safe” Stocks, where investors are paying outrageously high multiples for companies that are believed to be more recession resistant such as consumer staples.  In this article I figured I’d cover a stock Mr. Market and the doom and gloom propagandists view to be “risky” based on...
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The Bubble in “Safe” Stocks

Since early March, the stock market has been far more driven by fear than fundamentals, which has led to what I believe to be a bubble in stocks perceived as being “safe.”  When you pay 50% too much for a stock, a simple reversion to the mean can cause disastrous permanent losses of capital.  Conversely,...
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Warren Buffett’s Secret Investment Sauce- WSJ Article

This weekend, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway holds its annual meeting where investors flock to Omaha Nebraska to listen to the valuable insights offered by Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger.  It’s a great time to reflect on why these investors have been so successful and how it can be applied to our own investments.  Today,...
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JP Morgan Buys First Republic with FDIC Help

This morning we woke up to the news that JP Morgan has purchased the vast majority of the assets and deposits of First Republic with the help of the FDIC bank-funded insurance fund.  This deal removes the last lingering overhang from the panic-induced bank runs that we saw in early March, which led to the...
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First Impressions From Bank Earnings- Research Reports

On Friday several of the big banks reported earnings that were exceptionally strong, highlighting their strength in times of turmoil.  I believe that much of hysteria we saw in March was manufactured panic to a large extent.  Several horribly managed banks were taken out by bank runs and the problems were extrapolated incorrectly to the...
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