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coronavirus
Sometimes it is easy to look at what is working in the stock market and assume that it is the “safe and prudent” way to invest, because it is working.  Remember that investing is about buying securities at a discount to intrinsic value based on a fundamental analysis that suggests the securities should appreciate over...
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As we get into mid-August, we are seeing some very positive data points.  Hospitalizations and ICU utilization for Covid-19 are plummeting fast, particularly in the sunbelt, where there was so much concern.  Tragically deaths lag and are likely at their peak right now, although this is a far lower peak than what we saw in...
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I’ve been writing to you for quite some time about the massive paradox between growth and value stocks.  The largest growth companies have become so big that they now represent the largest portion of the indices in history.  Conversely, value stocks have remained in the penalty box and are trading at very cheap valuations.  The...
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I’d like to draw your attention to the images above.  The graph on the left highlights the sharp divergence between momentum growth stocks and value stocks.  That is a 55% divergence and is one of the most shocking divides between growth and momentum in history, if not the most.  The only comparable is during the...
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I wanted to start with wishing all the Dads a Happy Father’s Day.  There has been a lot of interesting data coming out, including an incredible jobs report for May, and then a shockingly good retail sales number last week.  As we continue to reopen and resume a semblance of normalcy, things should only keep...
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Volatility is picking up once again, which we should expect given the extreme conditions the world is seeing.  Yesterday, the Federal Reserve chair said that interest rates were likely to stay near zero through at least the next year or so.  I don’t see that as surprising whatsoever, given the focus will be on reducing...
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As the economy reopens, cyclical value stocks are starting to perform a lot better. Remember, that what we experienced was something that has never happened before, with the major economies across the globe shutting down due to a virus.  I’d suggest the lock-down was more like the black swan rather than the pandemic, which are...
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The news about Coronavirus continues to get substantially better.  The CDC updated its infection fatality rate (IFR) estimate to 0.26%.  This means that, if one is infected, they have a 0.26% chance of dying.  Initial estimates hovered around 1.5-3%, which shows how drastically wrong they were.  Now clearly one has a higher chance of death...
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2020 has certainly been a tragedy of epic proportions on just about any level imaginable.  There is no sugarcoating that.  When you have tens of thousands of people dying from a new virus, and economies shut down across the world, it is tough to feel cheery, especially when you sprinkle in record unemployment.  The stock...
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2020 has seen a major disconnect between growth and value.  In the first quarter, the Russell 1000 Pure Growth Total Return index returned -13.6%, while the Russell 1000 Pure Value Total Return index returned -35%.  If you think about the companies that are most negatively impacted by the bizarre nature of this crisis where economies...
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