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Recession
Historically, it has made reasonable sense for retirees to have a sizable allocation to bonds.  A minimum of 40% was certainly not uncommon.  The logic behind this was that retirees regularly draw from their accounts and are less comfortable with the enhanced volatility that stocks can at times provide.  The supposedly steady income from the...
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Continued pressure on bond yields and bad economic data out of China and Europe scared the market today, causing a 3% selloff.  While it is a large point drop, it would only qualify as the 342nd largest percentage drop in history.  Stocks got off to a torrid start to the year and it shouldn’t be...
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Well that was one heck of a week.  While I certainly was not smart enough to predict the results of the election, it has had a profound impact on my expectations for us as investors.  For the last 7 years, I’ve been one of the most vocal advocates of financial stocks that I am aware...
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As we sit in year-7 of a historic bull market, with earnings likely to decline for the 3rd consecutive quarter, the lack of a margin of safety in most stocks, bonds, and real estate is becoming painfully obvious. The Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rate policies have driven all asset classes higher, to levels where the...
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After a month and a half of low volatility, where stock indexes failed to move by more than 1%, volatility has rushed back onto the scene over the last several days. Frankly, this is very normal market behavior, as periods of calm usually presage periods of volatility. One shouldn’t get complacent when things are quiet,...
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Over the last month, we have begun to see financial stocks outperform the overall market.  If one was to ask why, most market participants would say that the perception that interest rate hikes are more likely to be forthcoming in 2016 is driving the stocks.  In a market where short-termism is the status quo, these...
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    “Many that are fallen shall be redeemed, and many shall fall that are now in honor.” Horace 20 B.C. During the late 1990’s, tech stocks reached valuations that nobody could explain. While most people saw the dynamically changing marketplace and felt the extraordinary impact of the internet, traditional valuation metrics such as P/E...
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Last night’s vote for Great Britain to exit the EU was a massive shot to the bow of the European establishment. While polls had been even, the betting odds were basically 8-1 that the country would stay in the EU, so markets are quite shocked at the result. In overnight trading, just about every asset...
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These last few weeks have been marred by extremely significant volatility as we prepare for the Brexit vote on June 23rd. While most of the impact of any Brexit wouldn’t likely be felt for several years at the minimum, the uncertainty that more countries would leave the Eurozone could mean more volatility for the market...
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One of my very favorite investors Wilbur Ross was on Fox Business News discussing housing, politics, and business.  I think he is right on just about everything, and his comments about the high likelihood of a recession if we endure the fiscal cliff are right on.  Ross is a perfect example of a patient and...
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