Today’s CPI inflation data came in hot at 8.3%, down slightly from the previous report, but higher than expectations. Inflation is rampant in all the key areas that impact our daily lives such as food, energy, shelter and transportation.  The sting of higher prices and the disruption emerging from the Chinese lockdowns has the...Read More

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 bps, or 1/2%.  Initially the market reacted favorably to this with a strong rally on Wednesday, only to be reversed with the biggest down day since 2020 on Thursday.  Tech/glamour stocks have simply been getting obliterated.  Tesla dropped 8.3% on the day, while Amazon dropped...Read More

What a terrible month for the equity markets.  As I write this, the Nasdaq looks set to close down 12.% for April, which is its worst monthly performance since October of 2008, which was when we were seeing some of the worst developments of the Financial Crisis.  The index is now down more than 23%...Read More

I hope that all of you who celebrate had a wonderful Easter last week. I just wanted to provide a quick update, as the markets have been quite tumultuous of late. We are done with Big Bank earnings for the 1st quarter of 2022.  The overall message was enormously positive.  Both consumer and commercial credit...Read More

2022 is shaping up to be quite the crazy year.  While this horrible war in Ukraine dominates media headlines, I can’t help but feeling like inflation might be the dominant theme of the next decade.  Using “government” numbers, inflation is running at about 7.9%.  Shelter is the single biggest component of CPI at 33% of...Read More

Today the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps.  With inflation so high, it almost certainly would have been 50 bps if not for the concerns over the economy related to the impact of the Russian/Ukraine war, which is exasperating things materially.  There has been some very positive dialogue from both Ukraine and Russia...Read More

Yesterday’s CPI report showed prices up 7.9% YoY, which was the highest reading since 1982.  Even more concerning, this was before the impacts of the Russian/Ukraine war is reflected in the data.  Market volatility is exceptionally high and pessimism is quite pervasive.  There are legitimate fears that inflation in excess of wage growth could cause...Read More

The Nasdaq is now officially in a bear market as defined by a 20% decline from the highs, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices are in corrections, with losses greater than 10%.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the economic sanctions brought against Russia in response are a major deal for the global...Read More

Today was a very sad day with Russia executing a rather substantial invasion of Ukraine.  The events certainly shook up markets, causing a massive selloff to begin the day, only with the indices ending up positive, bolstered by Technology stocks.  It’s obviously a tragic scenario and it seems as though Putin is committed to “demilitarize”...Read More

The Russia/Ukraine spat has definitely heated up with Russia formally recognizing the two provinces in Eastern Ukraine that it already had informal control over.  Obviously things are fluid and can always devolve further, but markets seems to be pricing in a decent amount of this risk currently.  Energy and commodities seem like the biggest beneficiary...Read More