We have T&T Capital Management have been saying for sometime now that companies that are dependent on China to propel their growth, particularly in the areas of  real estate, and other hard assets, are at risk and likely don’t warrant a peak earnings multiple.  China has gone on a spending spree that is unprecedented for...Read More

While the headline number on durable goods was not very positive this morning, it was distorted by a decrease in government spending on aircraft.  Excluding that the numbers were up primarily on strength in the automotive sector.  While economic data has not been as positive as the data earlier in the year the economy is...Read More

It is very difficult to forecast the future outlook for oil prices.  In relation to other forms of energy such as natural gas it is obscenely expensive.  Supply isn’t really constrained even with the difficulties in demand and production has been relatively solid.  Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent to develop new deepwater...Read More

As we’ve stated before Chinese infrastructure spending has likely gone too far, too fast, and has provided a tremendous boost to many commodity businesses.  The most susceptible to a slowdown in China are mining companies that have created the materials for the heavy-industry infrastructure.  When you combine the inflated prices that this demand has caused...Read More

This was a really interesting article discussing the pending execution of a 30 year old Chinese woman for fraud charges.  I’ll let you come to your own moral conclusions as it hits on many levels, but it is certainly an informative perspective into the Chinese judicial system. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/shadow-banks-on-trial-as-china-s-rich-sister-faces-death.html INVESTING IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS INVOLVES RISKS....Read More

My concern for the Chinese real estate market is growing greater as builders continue to increase supply despite falling prices and demand.  This is the worst case scenario for prices and the positive impact for Chinese GDP growth due to continued construction is nothing more than a sugar high, which will dissipate as demand wanes....Read More

I’d expect a tremendous amount of competition but if China is indeed opening up their domestic auto insurance market the potential benefits can be huge.  If I were in the auto insurance in business I’d copy Geico’s model which has been so successful in the United States as much as possible.  The low cost operator...Read More

While at T&T Capital Management we are of the mindset that China is likely to experience a considerably rougher landing than the consensus opinion, this article nicely articulates some of the problems that particular commodity exporters might endure.  Companies like BHP, RIO, and RTP, are not going to have same seemingly inexhaustible demand that has...Read More

The consensus has been that China was likely to endure a soft landing.  I think this is extremely optimistic thinking when you look at their unbelievable growth and expansion over the last decade, particularly in the housing market.  Their real estate bubble is very different than that that was endured in the U.S. because many...Read More

The writing is on the wall for the slowdown in Chinese economic growth.  Unsustainable hard asset construction has been crucial for the cyclical buoyancy to many commodities such as iron, copper, crude oil, etc.  This Asian growth has been vital as the traditional economic heavyweights have been hindered through a severe recession, and several different...Read More