You likely are sensing a bit of a theme with recent articles discussing what I believe to be a pretty substantial equity bubble, centered on the Megacap stocks dominating the market.  To be clear, I think there is still value in some of them, and we actually own some of them, although our exposures are...Read More

In early 2023, we have seen a bit of a return of the speculative euphoria that was so pervasive in 2020 and 2021, which has driven up asset prices once again.  Market participants are more optimistic about things based on the belief that inflationary pressures are headed far lower, which should result in the end...Read More

We are in the early weeks of earnings season, and overall, the results have been quite impressive.  The banking sector saw continued improvement in net interest margins, with credit normalizing a bit.  One must remember that we are coming off the most enormous stimulus package in history in 2020, which created the best credit environment...Read More

Markets have been off to a nice start to begin 2023.  Today’s CPI was quite positive, increasing by 6.5% from a year earlier, marking the sixth straight monthly deceleration since peaking in the middle of last year.  While 6.5% is still an ugly number, which I know we all feel when we go out to...Read More

Inflation and its impact on interest rates continues to be the driving factor in financial markets and the overall economy.  There are certainly signs of inflation slowing down in a practical sense, with what we are seeing in housing, as prices decline in many of the formerly hottest markets.  That will take time to show...Read More

The Huge Cost of Trying to Time the Market and Favorable Election-Year DynamicsToday I saw an interesting statistic that I wanted to share with you.  If you sold stocks at the bottom of each 10% selloff, and then bought back 10 days later, you’d miss out on over 2/3rds of the gains since 2002.  This...Read More

Today’s higher than expected August CPI report, rattled the market dramatically, causing the Nasdaq to drop by 5.2%, the S&P 500 by 4.3%, and the Dow to drop by 4%.  This was the biggest down day since June of 2020 and the 8th daily decline of greater than 3% on the year.  The recent decline...Read More

The stock market has reacted very negatively to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish interest rate outlook, with the S&P declining by roughly 6% over the last 4 days.  Weaker economic data and declining commodity prices gave market participants hope that the Fed might pivot, pointing to less rate hikes, but Powell talked a tough game,...Read More

Markets have had a nice rally since the mid-June lows, as signs that inflation has peaked have investors a bit more optimistic that the Federal Reserve won’t have to raise rates as far.  I’m definitely in the camp that the inflation growth rate has peaked and the signs of it are quite pervasive.  With that...Read More

Today’s CPI report was very positive, coming in lower than expected.  This is very good news, if this trend continues the Federal Reserve might slow down on its rate hikes.  In addition, Friday’s July employment numbers were better than expected, although new unemployment claims are starting to rise, as companies are ramping up layoffs in...Read More