Inflation and its impact on interest rates continues to be the driving factor in financial markets and the overall economy.  There are certainly signs of inflation slowing down in a practical sense, with what we are seeing in housing, as prices decline in many of the formerly hottest markets.  That will take time to show...Read More

The Huge Cost of Trying to Time the Market and Favorable Election-Year DynamicsToday I saw an interesting statistic that I wanted to share with you.  If you sold stocks at the bottom of each 10% selloff, and then bought back 10 days later, you’d miss out on over 2/3rds of the gains since 2002.  This...Read More

Today’s higher than expected August CPI report, rattled the market dramatically, causing the Nasdaq to drop by 5.2%, the S&P 500 by 4.3%, and the Dow to drop by 4%.  This was the biggest down day since June of 2020 and the 8th daily decline of greater than 3% on the year.  The recent decline...Read More

The stock market has reacted very negatively to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish interest rate outlook, with the S&P declining by roughly 6% over the last 4 days.  Weaker economic data and declining commodity prices gave market participants hope that the Fed might pivot, pointing to less rate hikes, but Powell talked a tough game,...Read More

Markets have had a nice rally since the mid-June lows, as signs that inflation has peaked have investors a bit more optimistic that the Federal Reserve won’t have to raise rates as far.  I’m definitely in the camp that the inflation growth rate has peaked and the signs of it are quite pervasive.  With that...Read More

Today’s CPI report was very positive, coming in lower than expected.  This is very good news, if this trend continues the Federal Reserve might slow down on its rate hikes.  In addition, Friday’s July employment numbers were better than expected, although new unemployment claims are starting to rise, as companies are ramping up layoffs in...Read More

What a terrible month for the equity markets.  As I write this, the Nasdaq looks set to close down 12.% for April, which is its worst monthly performance since October of 2008, which was when we were seeing some of the worst developments of the Financial Crisis.  The index is now down more than 23%...Read More

I hope that all of you who celebrate had a wonderful Easter last week. I just wanted to provide a quick update, as the markets have been quite tumultuous of late. We are done with Big Bank earnings for the 1st quarter of 2022.  The overall message was enormously positive.  Both consumer and commercial credit...Read More

2022 is shaping up to be quite the crazy year.  While this horrible war in Ukraine dominates media headlines, I can’t help but feeling like inflation might be the dominant theme of the next decade.  Using “government” numbers, inflation is running at about 7.9%.  Shelter is the single biggest component of CPI at 33% of...Read More

Yesterday’s CPI report showed prices up 7.9% YoY, which was the highest reading since 1982.  Even more concerning, this was before the impacts of the Russian/Ukraine war is reflected in the data.  Market volatility is exceptionally high and pessimism is quite pervasive.  There are legitimate fears that inflation in excess of wage growth could cause...Read More