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Economy
Today’s CPI report was very positive, coming in lower than expected.  This is very good news, if this trend continues the Federal Reserve might slow down on its rate hikes.  In addition, Friday’s July employment numbers were better than expected, although new unemployment claims are starting to rise, as companies are ramping up layoffs in...
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Value After Hours S04 E27: Small Value is Quality, Energy in Food, Financials and the Consumer  
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Last week we wrote to you about when to expect bear markets to end and we touched on the first day of big bank earnings.  Well, since then we’ve gotten earnings reports from Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Ally Financial.  These companies have access to an enormous amount of...
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When you are in the midst of a bear market, all the news is bad.  You are usually either in or about to be in a recession. Analysts that kept telling you to buy stocks at 50% higher prices, now tell you to sell the same stocks despite them being dramatically cheaper.  Economic data gets...
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Today there were headlines that one of the premier growth funds, Tiger Global Management is down 52% this year.  This has been one of the hottest funds of the last decade, buying the flashiest growth stocks with little regard to valuations.  Tiger’s aggressive strategy was richly rewarded over the last few years while value struggled...
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This morning, the WSJ reported that Warren Buffett has been on an aggressive buying spree during this bear market.  There is a link to the market below.  Buffett has been buying value stocks such as Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Hewlett-Packard to name a few.  When he is buying on the stocks, he isn’t predicting that...
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  Today’s CPI inflation data came in hot at 8.3%, down slightly from the previous report, but higher than expectations. Inflation is rampant in all the key areas that impact our daily lives such as food, energy, shelter and transportation.  The sting of higher prices and the disruption emerging from the Chinese lockdowns has the...
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Yesterday’s CPI report showed prices up 7.9% YoY, which was the highest reading since 1982.  Even more concerning, this was before the impacts of the Russian/Ukraine war is reflected in the data.  Market volatility is exceptionally high and pessimism is quite pervasive.  There are legitimate fears that inflation in excess of wage growth could cause...
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I’ve been writing a lot about elevated valuations for equities and the absolutely horrid risk/reward in almost all bonds.  I’ve kept the same graphics at the top of this email for the last month as I want to emphasize the importance.  We’ve also covered inflation, which is rearing its ugly head, with the September PPI...
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Today the Case/Shiller housing price data came out and it showed prices up nearly 20% YoY. Brent crude oil touched $80 per barrel and is on course for its best month since February. Treasury yields have risen quite dramatically over the last week, with the 10-year now above 1.5%, the highest since June.  Natural gas...
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