As a firm, our biggest position has been Assured Guaranty (AGO) for quite some time. We have written about it extensively and covered the attractiveness of the opportunity in great detail. Today was a great day, as we really got confirmation of the incredible progress that this company is making.Read More

I’ve been warning all year about a clear and obvious bubble in consumer staples stocks.  The same can be said for utilities and many areas on the fixed income market.  This bubble has been built on the pervasive market sentiment that as long as the dividend yield is reasonably greater than what can be obtained...Read More

Reasonably strong economic growth has enhanced the case for a rate hike, likely in December barring significant negative developments between now and then.  While I’ll be the first to say that U.S. and global economic growth is sub-optimal, current Fed Policies are extraordinary and should only be implemented in extremely dire economic scenarios.  This is...Read More

As we sit in year-7 of a historic bull market, with earnings likely to decline for the 3rd consecutive quarter, the lack of a margin of safety in most stocks, bonds, and real estate is becoming painfully obvious. The Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rate policies have driven all asset classes higher, to levels where the...Read More

This morning I was reading an interesting Bloomberg article on the lack of savings being accumulated by a large percentage of the population, including those earning between $100-$150K per year. Astonishingly in the survey, close to 50% of those have less than $1,000 in savings, and about 18% have absolutely nothing. Even those who earn...Read More

After a month and a half of low volatility, where stock indexes failed to move by more than 1%, volatility has rushed back onto the scene over the last several days. Frankly, this is very normal market behavior, as periods of calm usually presage periods of volatility. One shouldn’t get complacent when things are quiet,...Read More

Over the last month, we have begun to see financial stocks outperform the overall market.  If one was to ask why, most market participants would say that the perception that interest rate hikes are more likely to be forthcoming in 2016 is driving the stocks.  In a market where short-termism is the status quo, these...Read More

“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience.  No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time:  You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.”- Warren Buffett The bull market that started in March of 2009 is now on the verge of its 6th and a half year,...Read More

Today it was announced that TIAA was buying Everbank (EVER) for $19.50 per share.  Everbank is a very average bank with lower returns on equity than the big banks.  As of the 2nd quarter 2016, Everbank’s tangible book value per share was $13.24 meaning that TIAA is paying right around 1.5 times tangible book.  Because...Read More

I’ve been writing extensively about the incredible undervaluation of the big banks relative to intrinsic value. Financials in general are by far and away the cheapest and most attractive area of the stock market.  Remember banks have been around for many centuries, and the reason for that is it’s a pretty good business to be...Read More