The YTD rally in the S&P 500 has been dominantly comprised from the performance on the top 8 stocks, all of which performed poorly last year.  This is by far the narrowest rally since the Tech Bubble, which ultimately culminated in an 80% drop in the Nasdaq.  These stocks are so big and comprise such...Read More

The S&P 500 is now down 25% YTD, which puts it in the top 10 worst selloffs historically.  What is particularly unique about this bear market is that bonds have offered no help whatsoever, generating massive losses as well.  Even conservative investment grade bonds are down by 22% YTD, when the previous biggest loss on...Read More

The last decade has been a strong one for U.S. equities and bonds.  One primary driver of that performance were low starting valuations, stemming from the Great Recession, which had just ended in 2009.  This was the opposite of the scenario that led to the lost decade preceding it.  I believe many market participants are...Read More

As I write this, the Dow has experienced its longest losing streak since 2011. Nearly 1/4th of the way into 2017, we are finally seeing some real volatility and more attractive investment opportunities are popping up each day.Read More

As a firm, our biggest position has been Assured Guaranty (AGO) for quite some time. We have written about it extensively and covered the attractiveness of the opportunity in great detail. Today was a great day, as we really got confirmation of the incredible progress that this company is making.Read More

I’ve been warning all year about a clear and obvious bubble in consumer staples stocks.  The same can be said for utilities and many areas on the fixed income market.  This bubble has been built on the pervasive market sentiment that as long as the dividend yield is reasonably greater than what can be obtained...Read More

Over the last month, we have begun to see financial stocks outperform the overall market.  If one was to ask why, most market participants would say that the perception that interest rate hikes are more likely to be forthcoming in 2016 is driving the stocks.  In a market where short-termism is the status quo, these...Read More

I’ve been writing extensively about the incredible undervaluation of the big banks relative to intrinsic value. Financials in general are by far and away the cheapest and most attractive area of the stock market.  Remember banks have been around for many centuries, and the reason for that is it’s a pretty good business to be...Read More

  I’ve written and talked a lot about the overall stock market being slightly overvalued and bonds being in a massive bubble. With that said, many stocks and industries have sold off dramatically over the last year and a half and are in their own bear markets. It is somewhat surprising that the index itself...Read More

Last Thursday’s Brexit vote led to a historically nightmarish day in the financial markets: Indexes across the globe were down between 3-10%. The British pound dropped from a high of $1.50 to $1.32, before finally recovering to $1.37, down an enormous 9% for the currency. European banks stocks were down between 15 and 20%. S....Read More