Tag

AGO
Today’s higher than expected August CPI report, rattled the market dramatically, causing the Nasdaq to drop by 5.2%, the S&P 500 by 4.3%, and the Dow to drop by 4%.  This was the biggest down day since June of 2020 and the 8th daily decline of greater than 3% on the year.  The recent decline...
Read More
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 bps, or 1/2%.  Initially the market reacted favorably to this with a strong rally on Wednesday, only to be reversed with the biggest down day since 2020 on Thursday.  Tech/glamour stocks have simply been getting obliterated.  Tesla dropped 8.3% on the day, while Amazon dropped...
Read More
The Nasdaq is now officially in a bear market as defined by a 20% decline from the highs, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices are in corrections, with losses greater than 10%.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the economic sanctions brought against Russia in response are a major deal for the global...
Read More
Today the U.S. consumer prices numbers were released.  The numbers topped forecasts significantly, increasing by 0.8% from the prior month, reflecting gains in nearly every major category.  To put it into context, the gain in the overall CPI was twice as much as the highest projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.  It is clear...
Read More
There have been a few interesting market developments the last few days.  10-year Treasury yields have increased to levels around where they were last year at this time, before the pandemic and lockdowns had really been felt.  The $1.9 Trillion stimulus package seems to be getting closer to getting done.  Inflation expectations are ticking up...
Read More
We had a feeling Monday would be bad and boy, did it deliver with the stock market dropping by nearly 8%, now down 19% in just 13 trading sessions.  The Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF was down 37% today alone!  This market selloff is now bigger than what we saw in late 2018,...
Read More
There has been a tremendous amount of news over the last few weeks with the phase 1 trade deal with China, progress on the successor to NAFTA, and the Tories winning in the UK by a wide margin.  We don’t want to overthink individual political or economic data-points, which is a mistake that far too many...
Read More
This has been a very busy week for earnings releases on some of our largest investments.  I just wanted to provide a quick update on a few of them, as they were meaningful. Assured Guaranty (AGO), was up roughly 7% after reporting a very strong quarter and a particularly attractive acquisition.  Net income was $142MM,...
Read More
On August 1st, markets across the globe were rattled as President Trump announced new tariffs on China.  Stocks plunged and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 1.9%.  The news shouldn’t have been such a shock as it has become increasingly clear that China hopes to stall.  If a new administration takes over in 2020, it...
Read More
Most financial advice starts with an asset allocation model.  These asset allocation models typically use information from the past, typically the last 30-40 years or so, and then project that into the future.  The big flaw in the process is that they don’t factor in changes in starting conditions and valuations.  For instance, on January...
Read More
1 2 3 7

Recent Comments

    7242 East Cortez Rd
    Scottsdale, AZ 85260
    Phone: 805-886-8140
    Fax : 949-335-9784