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TTCM Newsletter

Our newsletter explores emerging trends and important news.  Stay current on the subjects that affect your money and investments.  Explore the wide range of topics in our newsletter by clicking any of the links below.

Dear Investors, I thought it would be helpful to shed a little bit of light on our thinking and how we look at our current investments.  We’ve done this a few times in the past and it has been quite fun and profitable to see......

Dear Investors, Often we are asked why we don’t own the glamour stocks such as Amazon or Nvidia, which seem as though they can only go up in today’s market.  While both Amazon and Nvidia have incredible appeal right now and tremendous growth prospects, that......

Dear Investors, Last Thursday, AGO came out with very strong earnings!  Book value continues to grow and the company continues to be profitable, despite the fact that AGO increased reserves for Puerto Rico credits by the largest amount yet.  The stock has been hit pretty......

Dear Investors, I thought it would be helpful to look at some important market valuation metrics to give you a perspective of what type of market we are in. Shiller (Inflation-adjusted) P/E: 31.4.  The Shiller P/E is 86.9% higher than the historical mean of 16.8. ......

Dear Investors, Warren Buffett says, “The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs.” As stock markets across the globe continue to hit record highs, it is important to take a measured look at......

Dear Investors, On October 11th, we at T&T Capital Management celebrated our 6-year anniversary.  I feel incredibly blessed to say that the vast majority of our original clients are still with us, including quite a few that were with our prior enterprise, which we ran......

Dear Investors, In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria devastating Puerto Rico, there has a been a great deal of talk regarding its impact on bond prices and the restructuring process.  Much of the analysis is slanted and is quite poorly informed to be honest.  Remember......

Dear Investors, As we are now more than eight years into a bull market, I’m struck by how different the psychology is of most market participants now, compared to just a few years ago.  In Europe, we have seen a significant referendum vote, where the......

Dear Investors, For those of you that have been with us for a long time, you know that one of the key elements of our strategy is to load up on positions when prices make no sense, offering huge upside and a large margin of......

Dear Investors, In our newsletters, I’ve commented on several occasions about the similarities that we are seeing between now and 2000.  One of the major similarities is that glamour stocks such as Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, etc., are trading at valuations that are nearly impossible to......

First of all, I want to start by saying that all of our thoughts and prayers are for any of you that have or will be impacted by this terrible hurricane season.  Seeing the images of massive amounts of families being displaced and in jeopardy is never easy, but hopefully some good comes with the bad as divided communities come together to rebuild as we have so many times.  Between these natural disasters and the global trepidation involving the developments in North Korea, there has been no lack of negativity for people to dwell on.  At T&T Capital Management, our goal is really to invest your hard-earned assets in a way in which your funds are protected and where we can maximize risk-adjusted returns.  While we cannot do anything to protect people from certain disasters, we are 100% committed to helping to avoid the financial disasters that have plagued market participants for hundreds, if not thousands of years if you really think about it....

Dear Investors, Seth Klarman is undeniably one of the best investors of all time.  Reading his book and commentaries have been hugely helpful to me over the years. One thing that most market participants get wrong is an obsession with where the market is at......

As you are aware, my writings have really focused on our concerns for the overall markets due to elevated valuations and our strategy of focusing on special situations and deeply undervalued securities to maximize risk-adjusted returns.  I’ve always found Oaktree’s Howard Marks to be one......

The 1st half of 2017 has been the polar opposite of the 1st half of 2016.  Where last year we saw massive market declines in January and late June, this year we have seen no material selloffs, and minimal volatility.  Investor sentiment has changed from primal fear in early 2016, to incredible market optimism and frankly greed....

This June, we observe the 10th anniversary of the beginning of the Financial Crisis. It was ten years ago when two Bears Stearns hedge funds went bust due to subprime mortgage bets, and the situation got progressively worse from there. If you don’t know your history, you are doomed to repeat it. I remember that period of time very well. I was living in Orange County, Ca, which was considered the mecca of subprime mortgage lending, when the consensus was that “housing prices can only go up.” As Mark Twain is purported to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”...

While this optimism ultimately may prove to be valid if interest rates stay this low for many years to come and if earnings continue to grow, there is also a very real chance that many market participants will get badly burned. Most of this year's stock returns for the overall market are coming from Amazon, Facebook, Google, Netflix and Apple....

On May 4th, Assured Guaranty reported another phenomenal quarter of financial performance. Operating income was $273MM, or $2.14 per share in the quarter. These figures were up from $123MM, or $.89 per share in the prior year’s quarter. These returns were achieved despite the company adding an extra roughly $100MM in reserves for Puerto Rico, where they already likely have over $1 billion reserved all in. The most important numbers to follow on AGO are the non-GAAP operating book value and adjusted book value figures, which are the best proxies for intrinsic value for the company. Just from the end of 2016, operating book value grew to $52.51, from $49.89, or 5.25%. Adjusted book value grew to $71.51, from $66.46, or 7.6%. ...

Nearly a decade of unprecedented fiscal stimulus was bound to create bubbles. Last year, we had the great sovereign debt bubble where investors were paying countries and companies for the right to LOAN them money. As interest rates, have climbed, the foolishness of those participants has become more apparent as have their losses. Yield-desperate market participants have bid up just about every asset class you can think of. One of the most glaring bubbles is occurring in the junk bond market, where yields have plummeted to 5.7%, despite U.S. companies having taken on an extra $7.8 trillion of debt and other liabilities since 2010....