News

TTCM Newsletter

Our newsletter explores emerging trends and important news.  Stay current on the subjects that affect your money and investments.  Explore the wide range of topics in our newsletter by clicking any of the links below.

It is Very Difficult to Sell at the Top

I stumbled upon a fantastic article about the Tech Bubble and I wanted to share a few key points with you.  This is relevant because current market valuations appear to be very stretched by most metrics.  After an extremely strong 2019 and nearly an 11-year old bull market, investor optimism is quite high.  It is...
Read More

Investing into the Next Decade

Warren Buffett in July, 1999: “If I had to pick the most probable return over the next 20 year, it would be 6%.” Gallup poll in 1999: “Investors expect stocks to return 13-22% annually.” S&P avg. return from 1999-2019: 6.117%. (Source: Vetle Forsland)   As hard as it is to believe, another decade is coming...
Read More

Brexit, Trade Deals, Position Updates

There has been a tremendous amount of news over the last few weeks with the phase 1 trade deal with China, progress on the successor to NAFTA, and the Tories winning in the UK by a wide margin.  We don’t want to overthink individual political or economic data-points, which is a mistake that far too many...
Read More

Grasping at Straws to Generate Income

Over the weekend, I was reading Barron’s, and there were numerous articles about obtaining enough income in retirement.  The recommendations vary from buying dividend stocks, annuities, and/or bonds.  All of these strategies offer various challenges and risks.   Buying dividend stocks offers income and the potential for capital appreciation.  The problem is that many of these...
Read More

The Dangers of Chasing the Hot Story Stocks

There has been a great deal in the news about the office-sharing company WeWork, which rose to prominence over the last few years, as revenue grew rapidly and its outspoken CEO made headlines.  WeWork, and other formerly private enterprises such as Uber and Lyft, gained notoriety by obtaining higher and higher valuations from accommodating capital...
Read More

How do Interest Rates Impact Bonds? (Morningstar Article)

To piggyback on our last article discussing the illogical 60/40 portfolio in today’s interest rate environment, I thought I’d pass on this article on how interest rates impact bonds.  Many people don’t realize the immense risks that rising interest rates pose to bonds.  In the inflationary 1970’s, bonds were called “certificates of confiscation” due to...
Read More

Rethinking that 60/40 Allocation Model (Barron’s Article)

Historically, it has made reasonable sense for retirees to have a sizable allocation to bonds.  A minimum of 40% was certainly not uncommon.  The logic behind this was that retirees regularly draw from their accounts and are less comfortable with the enhanced volatility that stocks can at times provide.  The supposedly steady income from the...
Read More

Partial Trade Deal with China and Potential Ramifications

It appears that the United States and China have tentatively reached a partial agreement on trade.  Basically, the U.S. would pause further tariffs, while China would agree to agricultural concessions among other things.  Markets have rallied on the news, with stocks moving materially higher and bonds dropping, meaning yields increasing.  I think this is clearly...
Read More

WSJ Article- For Young Savers Facing Subpar Returns, Think Long-Term

This morning I read a good article in the WSJ, posted below.  The article discussed that, as a whole, stocks and bonds are pricey by historical measures.  Highly valued stocks and bonds have very likely pulled future returns forward, meaning many investors have less of an opportunity for big gains in the future. “U.S. stocks...
Read More