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TTCM Newsletter

Our newsletter explores emerging trends and important news.  Stay current on the subjects that affect your money and investments.  Explore the wide range of topics in our newsletter by clicking any of the links below.

Why Value vs Momentum Divergence is Likely to Get Much Better

I’d like to draw your attention to the images above.  The graph on the left highlights the sharp divergence between momentum growth stocks and value stocks.  That is a 55% divergence and is one of the most shocking divides between growth and momentum in history, if not the most.  The only comparable is during the...
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Happy Father’s Day and Two Research Reports on Mortgage Insurers

I wanted to start with wishing all the Dads a Happy Father’s Day.  There has been a lot of interesting data coming out, including an incredible jobs report for May, and then a shockingly good retail sales number last week.  As we continue to reopen and resume a semblance of normalcy, things should only keep...
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Coronavirus News and Jamie Dimon on Banks

Volatility is picking up once again, which we should expect given the extreme conditions the world is seeing.  Yesterday, the Federal Reserve chair said that interest rates were likely to stay near zero through at least the next year or so.  I don’t see that as surprising whatsoever, given the focus will be on reducing...
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Signs of a Value Resurgence Sprouting?

As the economy reopens, cyclical value stocks are starting to perform a lot better. Remember, that what we experienced was something that has never happened before, with the major economies across the globe shutting down due to a virus.  I’d suggest the lock-down was more like the black swan rather than the pandemic, which are...
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Coronavirus News and Jamie Dimon on Banks

The news about Coronavirus continues to get substantially better.  The CDC updated its infection fatality rate (IFR) estimate to 0.26%.  This means that, if one is infected, they have a 0.26% chance of dying.  Initial estimates hovered around 1.5-3%, which shows how drastically wrong they were.  Now clearly one has a higher chance of death...
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Value Investing Returns After Volatile Periods

The image above was presented by famous value investor Richard Pzena.  As you can see, it shows that the best returns from value investing come after periods of stress.  We’ve seen this same phenomena in our portfolios after every major selloff we have experienced over the years.  While this crisis is extraordinary, so it is...
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Why I’m So Confident We will See Massive Gains From Here

2020 has certainly been a tragedy of epic proportions on just about any level imaginable.  There is no sugarcoating that.  When you have tens of thousands of people dying from a new virus, and economies shut down across the world, it is tough to feel cheery, especially when you sprinkle in record unemployment.  The stock...
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The Most Important Chart for You to See

This year has been wild in many terrible ways.  One extremely painful phenomenon (for a value investor) has been the massive growth outperformance relative to value.  Coming into the year, we were at the widest relative spread between growth and value since 2000.  After the pandemic tanked stocks more closely related to the economy, the...
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The Frustrating Disconnect Between Value and Growth

2020 has seen a major disconnect between growth and value.  In the first quarter, the Russell 1000 Pure Growth Total Return index returned -13.6%, while the Russell 1000 Pure Value Total Return index returned -35%.  If you think about the companies that are most negatively impacted by the bizarre nature of this crisis where economies...
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Berkshire Meeting

On Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway hosted its annual shareholder meeting, which had a different feel, taking place in an empty auditorium, and without the great Charlie Munger being by his side.  Despite that, the meeting had a lot of great information, during these immensely precarious times.  Overall Buffett, is always bullish long-term on America, and on...
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Rob Arnott on Value Stocks

It has been an interesting week with a great start and a terrible finish for the markets.  We know there is going to be volatility so I wouldn’t see it as much of a surprise.  I’ve written a lot lately, so I’ll just pass on this great video of Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates, one...
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Fear Drives Returns

The Covid-19 health crisis continues to evolve globally, and slowly we are learning more about the virus.  There have been quite a few serology studies in various regions of the country, where they are examining how many people possess Covid-19 antibodies.  The results of the studies seem to indicate that the true number of infected...
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Charting a Path Forward

April 16th, 2020 is a big day for our country.  There is now a plan to begin reopening the country.  The decision will ultimately fall to the Governors of the states.  The pace of reopening will be determined by the situation impacting each state, as opposed to one process for the whole country.  Reopening in...
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Early Note on Big Bank Earnings

This week, earnings began coming out in abundance, starting with many of the Big Banks.  I’ve gotten through J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup.  Research reports will be forthcoming.  I will tell you that I am incredibly encouraged.  All 4 banks were profitable, despite posting dramatic and expected reserves to account for...
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Fear vs Facts

The vicious Covid-19 Pandemic is one of the most interesting and tragic times in history.  Right now, we are at an inflection point.  New cases, hospitalizations and deaths, are declining in Spain and Italy.  Deaths are likely peaking this week and early next week in our hardest hit areas of New York and New Jersey. ...
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