When you are in the midst of a bear market, all the news is bad.  You are usually either in or about to be in a recession. Analysts that kept telling you to buy stocks at 50% higher prices, now tell you to sell the same stocks despite them being dramatically cheaper.  Economic data gets...Read More

The Russia/Ukraine spat has definitely heated up with Russia formally recognizing the two provinces in Eastern Ukraine that it already had informal control over.  Obviously things are fluid and can always devolve further, but markets seems to be pricing in a decent amount of this risk currently.  Energy and commodities seem like the biggest beneficiary...Read More

We are beginning to see a bit of increasing volatility in equity markets arise, as concerns around Covid-19 and the Delta variant have caused increases in positive test results and restrictions, albeit on a far smaller basis than what occurred last year.  We’ve been writing about the market getting a bit ahead of itself for...Read More

Earnings season has begun and thus far almost every one of the banks that have reported have beaten their earnings estimates.  The stock prices haven’t yet reflected the improving metrics, but over time prices follow business fundamentals, so there will be convergence.  ALLY Financial posted an absolutely sensational quarter this morning with record earnings and...Read More

Volatility is picking up once again, which we should expect given the extreme conditions the world is seeing.  Yesterday, the Federal Reserve chair said that interest rates were likely to stay near zero through at least the next year or so.  I don’t see that as surprising whatsoever, given the focus will be on reducing...Read More

2020 has certainly been a tragedy of epic proportions on just about any level imaginable.  There is no sugarcoating that.  When you have tens of thousands of people dying from a new virus, and economies shut down across the world, it is tough to feel cheery, especially when you sprinkle in record unemployment.  The stock...Read More

On Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway hosted its annual shareholder meeting, which had a different feel, taking place in an empty auditorium, and without the great Charlie Munger being by his side.  Despite that, the meeting had a lot of great information, during these immensely precarious times.  Overall Buffett, is always bullish long-term on America, and on...Read More

The Covid-19 health crisis continues to evolve globally, and slowly we are learning more about the virus.  There have been quite a few serology studies in various regions of the country, where they are examining how many people possess Covid-19 antibodies.  The results of the studies seem to indicate that the true number of infected...Read More

This week, earnings began coming out in abundance, starting with many of the Big Banks.  I’ve gotten through J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup.  Research reports will be forthcoming.  I will tell you that I am incredibly encouraged.  All 4 banks were profitable, despite posting dramatic and expected reserves to account for...Read More

It appears that the United States and China have tentatively reached a partial agreement on trade.  Basically, the U.S. would pause further tariffs, while China would agree to agricultural concessions among other things.  Markets have rallied on the news, with stocks moving materially higher and bonds dropping, meaning yields increasing.  I think this is clearly...Read More