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Perspectives
At TTCM we have long been advocating the undervaluation that we see in the Swiss drug maker Novartis.  The company is valued as though it has no growth prospects, but when you look at the pipeline, and the different components of the company, we believe that they have the ability to grow EPS by 7-10%...
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Further evidence of the improving economy is seen by the index of home builders confidence which has reached a five year high.  Housing inventory is going down and prices have been depressed due to the high rate of distressed sales.  While consensus is that the housing recovery will take some time, I believe that there...
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Reading this article really hits home because this is the type of stuff that gives my profession a bad reputation at times.  So many unscrupulous salesmen are using phrases like “your principal is guaranteed” to mask the risks and drawbacks of certain products.  In this example an insurance broker is peddling an annuity product to...
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The following article puts some historical perspective to the current issues in Europe.  The premise is that the best way for the weaker economies such as Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to be able to recover is through deflating their own currency.  The parallel is that countries that left the gold standard after World War 1...
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This was a timely article after our recent analysis on CSX.  We believe that coal demand is likely to continue its decline as the glut of natural gas will cause utilities to take advantage of the cleaner, and less costly fossil fuel.  Also the once in a lifetime construction boom seen in China seems to...
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Transocean RIG has had a terrible couple of years ever since the Macondo oil spill.  Fears about liability exposure, and substantial operating difficulties due to regulatory changes resulting from the spill, have forced RIG to remove many of their most profitable offshore rigs while they are under repair. Our investment thesis has been that the...
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Cisco is using some of their foreign cash to acquire the Digital TV software maker NDS for $5 Billion.  They are using the foreign cash to avoid paying taxes on repatriating that money back to the U.S.. I sure hope that this is a business that Cisco is committed to operating in.  I’ve long been...
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Australia’s housing market has been a huge beneficiary of China’s natural resource thirst.  Extremely low unemployment and rising incomes have helped to boost prices dramatically, while most of the developed economies were seeing huge housing deflation.  Debt to income in Australia is around 150% so any slow down in China (which we already see happening)...
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The United Kingdom is looking at taking advantage of the current low interest rate environment by issuing 100 year bonds.  I think this is a very intelligent thing for them to do, but I think anyone that buys them would be absolutely insane.  With the U.S. debt load being what it is, locking in today’s...
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In the most recent shareholder letter Daniel Loeb talks about interesting investments in Unicredit and Yahoo.  Loeb’s involvement is certainly a positive for Yahoo as we have long argued that the sum of the parts is worth far greater than the current price.  Scott Thompson seems to be the man for the job and I...
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