Well that was one heck of a week.  While I certainly was not smart enough to predict the results of the election, it has had a profound impact on my expectations for us as investors.  For the last 7 years, I’ve been one of the most vocal advocates of financial stocks that I am aware...Read More

    “Many that are fallen shall be redeemed, and many shall fall that are now in honor.” Horace 20 B.C. During the late 1990’s, tech stocks reached valuations that nobody could explain. While most people saw the dynamically changing marketplace and felt the extraordinary impact of the internet, traditional valuation metrics such as P/E...Read More

It looks as though the PROMESA legislation is going to be approved by the Senate and signed by the President in the very near future. While far from perfect, this legislation is also far from being a worst case scenario for both creditors and bond insurance companies. It is hard to overstate just how attractive...Read More

Yesterday, Assured Guaranty reported very strong 1st quarter earnings and once again saw an increase in both operating and adjusted book value. Over the last year, the company has grown both metrics by roughly 15%, despite adding material reserves for its Puerto Rico exposures and paying a respectable 2% dividend. The stock still trades at...Read More

Below is TTCM’s most recent research report on Assured Guaranty. We believe that Puerto Rico fears are greatly exaggerated for AGO. Follow the link to read more.  I hope you enjoy! http://seekingalpha.com/article/3964126-puerto-rico-fears-greatly-exaggerated-ago   Investing in AGO? You’ll want to read these exclusive PRO articles: Assured Guaranty – 50% Of Growing Adjusted Book Value by Tim...Read More

Below is the letter to MBIA shareholders’ written by CEO Jay Brown.  MBIA is another major bond insurer similar to AGO, although AGO is the much stronger company.  I wanted to share the letter because he makes some key points regarding exposure to Puerto Rico, which I believe to widely misunderstood by the overall market....Read More

This is an interesting article on the risk on/risk off mentality that has existed in the markets since 2008.  There is a big difference between and investing and trading and I think this mentality pertains to trading.  Benjamin Graham developed the concept of “Mr. Market” and the primary premise is that over the short term...Read More

Alexis Tspiras, head of Greece’s biggest anti-bailout party Syriza, continues to beat the drum of cancelling the agreed upon terms of their bailout.  This is an amazingly dangerous and manipulative campaign that distorts facts, and preys on those who are consumed by the deep recession and the accompanying unemployment.  If Greece were to abandon their...Read More

EU lawmakers seem intent on turning a recession into a depression by imposing absurdly high capital requirements which would serve to stifle lending at the worst time possible.  This is one of the most obscene over reactions that I can imagine, and it is totally impractical for banks to raise that much capital when the...Read More

It’s good to see AIG getting back into Real Estate while collateral values are still low.  This is a company that has a huge amount of float that they need to invest so they must remain disciplined and diversified.  Before their CEO Robert Benmosche took over AIG was winding down everything under pressure from the...Read More