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Economy
Running up to the election in 2016, I believe the market was down 12 days in a row or something along those lines. We’ve seen a substantial selloff once again running into this one as tensions are high and stimulus is not happening prior to the election. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Google were down by...
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I’ve written quite a few times about the Tech Bubble that currently exists in the U.S. stock market.  No stock better epitomizes this madness than Tesla.  Over the last 12 months, Tesla generated $24.578 billion in total revenue and generated EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of negative $69MM.  Tesla’s market capitalization is a staggering...
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Sometimes it is easy to look at what is working in the stock market and assume that it is the “safe and prudent” way to invest, because it is working.  Remember that investing is about buying securities at a discount to intrinsic value based on a fundamental analysis that suggests the securities should appreciate over...
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As we get into mid-August, we are seeing some very positive data points.  Hospitalizations and ICU utilization for Covid-19 are plummeting fast, particularly in the sunbelt, where there was so much concern.  Tragically deaths lag and are likely at their peak right now, although this is a far lower peak than what we saw in...
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As the economy reopens, cyclical value stocks are starting to perform a lot better. Remember, that what we experienced was something that has never happened before, with the major economies across the globe shutting down due to a virus.  I’d suggest the lock-down was more like the black swan rather than the pandemic, which are...
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The news about Coronavirus continues to get substantially better.  The CDC updated its infection fatality rate (IFR) estimate to 0.26%.  This means that, if one is infected, they have a 0.26% chance of dying.  Initial estimates hovered around 1.5-3%, which shows how drastically wrong they were.  Now clearly one has a higher chance of death...
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2020 has certainly been a tragedy of epic proportions on just about any level imaginable.  There is no sugarcoating that.  When you have tens of thousands of people dying from a new virus, and economies shut down across the world, it is tough to feel cheery, especially when you sprinkle in record unemployment.  The stock...
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This year has been wild in many terrible ways.  One extremely painful phenomenon (for a value investor) has been the massive growth outperformance relative to value.  Coming into the year, we were at the widest relative spread between growth and value since 2000.  After the pandemic tanked stocks more closely related to the economy, the...
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2020 has seen a major disconnect between growth and value.  In the first quarter, the Russell 1000 Pure Growth Total Return index returned -13.6%, while the Russell 1000 Pure Value Total Return index returned -35%.  If you think about the companies that are most negatively impacted by the bizarre nature of this crisis where economies...
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On Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway hosted its annual shareholder meeting, which had a different feel, taking place in an empty auditorium, and without the great Charlie Munger being by his side.  Despite that, the meeting had a lot of great information, during these immensely precarious times.  Overall Buffett, is always bullish long-term on America, and on...
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