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AGO
It looks as though the PROMESA legislation is going to be approved by the Senate and signed by the President in the very near future. While far from perfect, this legislation is also far from being a worst case scenario for both creditors and bond insurance companies. It is hard to overstate just how attractive...
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I’ll be writing about this in more detail in a few weeks, but new information has been released about the negotiations between Puerto Rico and its creditors.  While no deal has been agreed to as was expected, Puerto Rico has been raising the prices at which it is willing to settle the debts for.  The...
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  Since the extremely weak May jobs report, interest rates have plummeted across the globe. There are now over $10 trillion in bonds that are trading at negative interest rates. This is unprecedented as the buyers of these bonds are guaranteeing themselves losses if they hold until maturity. This has pushed asset prices up as...
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The basic tenets to value investing and margin of safety are the following: Every stock is a fractional share of an actual business. Every business or stock has an “intrinsic value.” The “intrinsic value” of a business generally changes at a much slower rate than the price of a publicly traded stock can change. Over...
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If one studies the history of financial markets, a consistent theme emerges. Short-term fads tend to dictate short-term performance, but long-term performance is determined by value and fundamentals. There are periods where prices flat out do not make sense, either for the market as a whole or for individual stocks and sectors. The current investment...
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Yesterday, Assured Guaranty reported very strong 1st quarter earnings and once again saw an increase in both operating and adjusted book value. Over the last year, the company has grown both metrics by roughly 15%, despite adding material reserves for its Puerto Rico exposures and paying a respectable 2% dividend. The stock still trades at...
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Today, Assured Guaranty announced its acquisition of fellow bond insurer CIFG.  This is now the 3rd acquisition AGO has made of another bond insurance company.  The others, which were FSA and Radian Asset, have been very successful thus far.  While this acquisition is a bit smaller, it looks very safe and should add a nice...
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Below is TTCM’s most recent research report on Assured Guaranty. We believe that Puerto Rico fears are greatly exaggerated for AGO. Follow the link to read more.  I hope you enjoy! http://seekingalpha.com/article/3964126-puerto-rico-fears-greatly-exaggerated-ago   Investing in AGO? You’ll want to read these exclusive PRO articles: Assured Guaranty – 50% Of Growing Adjusted Book Value by Tim...
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It has been quite a bizarre 2016 thus far in the equity markets.  We’ve seen a dramatic selloff and global bear market.  Then we saw a reasonable recovery in March.  Some of the worst performing economies such as Brazil have had the best stock market returns, while many others are still deeply in the red. ...
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Below is the letter to MBIA shareholders’ written by CEO Jay Brown.  MBIA is another major bond insurer similar to AGO, although AGO is the much stronger company.  I wanted to share the letter because he makes some key points regarding exposure to Puerto Rico, which I believe to widely misunderstood by the overall market....
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