I hope that you had a fabulous and safe Labor Day holiday.  This morning Warren Buffett was on CNBC where he discussed the economy, interest rates, and the outlook for long-term investing in stocks.  He made excellent points in that the U.S. economy has really not accelerated beyond the 2-2.25% level on a year over...Read More

Current stock market volatility remains extremely high and hysteria is quite significant.  It is my opinion that we are in a classic stock market correction.  I wouldn’t necessarily call it a panic yet, but clearly fear is very high.  It is important to look at the underlying fundamentals and see if they line up with...Read More

There is no doubt that the recent selloff in global markets has been stifling.  The percentages of stocks down 20-40% are incredibly high, but not necessarily shocking if you’ve been watching what has been going on.  Market participants have been bidding up stocks to unsustainable valuations, which have been buoyed by ultra-low interest rates.  Sometimes...Read More

We have now experienced the worst correction since 2011.  While these things are never fun to go through, they are 100% to be expected and 100% not to be feared.  Valuations have been elevated and there has been a great deal of speculative activity on wide swaths of the market, none of which we are...Read More

I just wanted to share this article with you.  It outlines the fact that the S&P 500 has dropped by more than 5% 28 times since 1980.  On average, the market is relatively flat the next week, up 1.65% over the next 4 weeks , and up close to 5% over the next 12 weeks. ...Read More

I always find it extremely important to communicate with clients, particularly during times of fear and turmoil because our history has proven that the more educated the client, the less inclined they are to panic.  We are clearly in the midst of a global stock panic.  While most would point to a fear of slowing...Read More

Stock markets around the globe have been panicking on fears of Chinese growth.  Today’s made news was the China manufacturing index slipped deeper into contraction territory.  The Dow is now down just about 10%, which is correction territory.  In this type of environment, just about all stocks fall.  Yesterday many of the momentum stocks that...Read More

It has been a very interesting summer as far as the equity markets go.  Summertime trading can often be quite volatile and people tend to read too much into short-term movements.  Clearly, the biggest global issue is the apparent slowdown in the Chinese economy, but if growth is anything close to the 7% growth that...Read More

Below you’ll find a link to my most recent and comprehensive research report on Assured Guaranty (AGO).  As most of you are aware, we’ve taken advantage of the recent dip to substantially increase our position size for those that have free cash.  In addition, we also have sold puts throughout the year and the last...Read More

Today the Shanghai index posted its worst day since 2007, plummeting a whopping 8.5%.  This took a significant chunk out of rally that has occurred since the Chinese government took efforts to actively halt the declines in the market, via capital injections, trading restrictions, and public proclamations against bearish participants.   China is significant for a...Read More