By

Tim Travis
I stumbled upon a fantastic article about the Tech Bubble and I wanted to share a few key points with you.  This is relevant because current market valuations appear to be very stretched by most metrics.  After an extremely strong 2019 and nearly an 11-year old bull market, investor optimism is quite high.  It is...
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Warren Buffett in July, 1999: “If I had to pick the most probable return over the next 20 year, it would be 6%.” Gallup poll in 1999: “Investors expect stocks to return 13-22% annually.” S&P avg. return from 1999-2019: 6.117%. (Source: Vetle Forsland)   As hard as it is to believe, another decade is coming...
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There has been a tremendous amount of news over the last few weeks with the phase 1 trade deal with China, progress on the successor to NAFTA, and the Tories winning in the UK by a wide margin.  We don’t want to overthink individual political or economic data-points, which is a mistake that far too many...
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Over the weekend, I was reading Barron’s, and there were numerous articles about obtaining enough income in retirement.  The recommendations vary from buying dividend stocks, annuities, and/or bonds.  All of these strategies offer various challenges and risks.   Buying dividend stocks offers income and the potential for capital appreciation.  The problem is that many of these...
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There has been a great deal in the news about the office-sharing company WeWork, which rose to prominence over the last few years, as revenue grew rapidly and its outspoken CEO made headlines.  WeWork, and other formerly private enterprises such as Uber and Lyft, gained notoriety by obtaining higher and higher valuations from accommodating capital...
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To piggyback on our last article discussing the illogical 60/40 portfolio in today’s interest rate environment, I thought I’d pass on this article on how interest rates impact bonds.  Many people don’t realize the immense risks that rising interest rates pose to bonds.  In the inflationary 1970’s, bonds were called “certificates of confiscation” due to...
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Historically, it has made reasonable sense for retirees to have a sizable allocation to bonds.  A minimum of 40% was certainly not uncommon.  The logic behind this was that retirees regularly draw from their accounts and are less comfortable with the enhanced volatility that stocks can at times provide.  The supposedly steady income from the...
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It appears that the United States and China have tentatively reached a partial agreement on trade.  Basically, the U.S. would pause further tariffs, while China would agree to agricultural concessions among other things.  Markets have rallied on the news, with stocks moving materially higher and bonds dropping, meaning yields increasing.  I think this is clearly...
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This morning I read a good article in the WSJ, posted below.  The article discussed that, as a whole, stocks and bonds are pricey by historical measures.  Highly valued stocks and bonds have very likely pulled future returns forward, meaning many investors have less of an opportunity for big gains in the future. “U.S. stocks...
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One of the hot stocks over the last few years has been Netflix.  Clearly, the product has been extremely successful across the globe, as the company has experienced strong subscriber growth.  As of July of this year, the stock was already up 40% for the year.  Despite the success of the product and the stock,...
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